Lots has happend...

Wow, long time since my last update.

To summarize, I play 2/4, run good, then run bad, get coached via video, and then decide to move back down for a bit.

After doing alright in 1/2, and believing that the games don't change all that much as you move up, I decide to take a stab at 2/4 6max, and FR games when they are short, or good (very scarce at UB). Too lazy to put up PT screen shots, but I am at (767.00) at 6max, and 1.75 at FR. I started 6max, had a nice +50 BB streak for 1k hands, then dropped 170 over the next 2k or so. I pull up, 60 bets or so in the next 1k hands, re drop it plus 80 more bets for the next 3k hands, followed by a 100 BB up swing, followed by another 100 BB downswing. Total loss from peak? 250BB.. which x4 is a bit past 1k. Running good while moving up is something I need to work on.

During this time (after I had swung down quite a bit), I was able to score a video coaching session from Entity of 2p2/Deuces Cracked Fame! I was really excited to have him review my play; he was a frequent poster in the micro limit forum when I was first learning the very basics of play. The link is above. I really enjoyed getting coached by him, and discussing some of the hands on AIM. The hands played were pretty standard, and he only thought I made one major mistake: one hand there was a weak UTG limper, folded to me in BB w/ QJo, I check, and check/call a raggy flop). There were a few other spots where I made a few loose calls, and perhaps was too laggy preflop, both due to reasons of rake, and just making plain ol' bad moves.

I wanted to bounce from UB as quickly as possible. I was between Full Tilt Poker, and PokerStars. I have rake back under JoeTall for FTP, and would have access to all DC content if I were to clear $500 MGR a month (definitely doable). Also, since I have yet to deposit at FTP, I would get a $600 bonus on my first deposit. PS has none of these. With all these facts, you would think I would go running to FTP, no? Haha, as you may guess, PS for me for now. My reasons being, wanted to get my confidence back at 1/2, work on playing more consistent, and also wouldn't be able to put the man hours into clearing the bonus with all that's going through my life right now.

And here I am! Not playing so much LHE, mainly LO8 to get some low variance money. Boy is the play SLOW for O8. I thought it was for only PLO8, but LO8 is just as slow. I probably will just play here for now, once my finals and actuary exam pass, I'll redeposit on FTP, and play when the urge strikes for now.

Ow! my anus is bleeding!

I gotta learn NL, that is all:





WHEEEE for being - 625 bb, down 1000 bb in nl6max, all the money I won was from Full Ring NL. Some of it was bad luck, I would put down easlily 4 BI's for bad play/tilt.

I'm gonna post all my big pot hands, and start posting more in microstakes NL

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Update 12/03/06 (related ot this/not worth starting a new thread)

It's really frustrating to learn a new game/move up, and to run bad. Sometimes you can't tell (especially for the new game) how much of your losses are due to bad play, and how much due to bad luck. It just gets me thinking, if I didn't run so hot as I did for when I first deposited, and for my first 12k hands for that matter, I don't know if I would still be playing poker.

For now, as far as NL is concerned, at first glance/thought it looks like 60% of my losses is due to bad play, and 40% is due to bad luck. For my sake, I'm just going to assume 95% since I have no handle on these sort of things yet. (and maybe I'll work on my play like a madman)

My world is still rocked

Even when I think I have bread and butter situations, my world still gets rocked.

A hand posted in the micros, goes a bit like this:

6h FL HE
MP opens, folded to hero in bb, who calls with 97 diamonds

flop comes 6c 8d Qc (4.5 SB pot)
check, MP bets, C/R call

turn 2d (4.25 BB pot)
bet call

river 7c (6.25 BB pot)
.....

My normal thing is I check, let my oppoenent fire one out, and I call. I even put villian on correctly to AK (or other UI A's and K's), and think it'll happen more often than not. Many of the head honchos think a bet out is correct, saying villians are more likely to call here with A's/K's, than to bluff with them.

I am confused by the logic, another poster elaborates:

"Sorry I'm confused here. Are u saying he will call the river with A-high so we should value-bet? Then u say that if u thought he would call the river lightly, then u wouldn't be bluffing in the first place? Then u say u are stuck betting the turn?"

Miles (the OP) replies:

"yes i am saying he will call with ace high. i am also saying that if i had known this player would call flop, turn, and river with ace high i should be more hesitant to try a semibluff. i am stuck betting the turn because i have a sick draw and he folds a lot here after peeling ~any two on the flop. so i have to bet there."

Scary_Tiger elaborates:

"Easy b/f, it takes a certain kind of Villain to bluff bet when the river 3-straight 3-flushes. Valuetown baby."

RESULTS: Miles bet out, villian called with AK Ship the monies

I ask miles:

"what other situations against "normal" opponents do you think the calling range is wider than the betting range on the river?"

He replies:

"this all depends on the action up until the river. the hands that matter are the hands that will call but won't bet. in general, these hands far outweigh the hands that will bet but won't call. this should be true for almost every player, especially as the pfr will be holding A/K high hands - hands which gain just about nothing from "bluffing" the river"

--------

This hand, and especially scary tiger's comment, and miles' last line gets me thinking. I gotta start thinking past 1st level (hand ranges for villian, 0th level is board reading), and "ZOMG, scary board, bluff time!". In villian's place, I would bet out that river every single time. To anybody who can hand read, that "bluff" looks very transparent, and is burning money. I can see now in retro spect C/R bet bet UI (with 97s now) would be a good line, as we look like 2 club's trying to bluff off villian, and he makes an easy calldown. I worked on alot this past few months working on my hand reading/1st level. Time to start thinking about that 2nd level.

BTW, reading NLTAP, provides a nice definition for the levels of thinking in poker. My (abridged) list that I'll probably have stickied on my wallpaper:

0 - reading the board
1 - hand reading villian
2 - villian hand reading me
3 - villian thinks about what I put him on
4 - Villian thinks about what I think he puts me on.

A bit much, but I at least should involve 2nd level thinking more into my playing. I don't know too much about the next 2. I should definitely know level 2 thinking solid for when I start moving up more.

Speaking of moving up, 2/4 is E-Z


I've also been running pretty well at 1/2


EDIT - heh, may be weak to black out stats, but you never know who is reading!

I've even been getting better at NL! (not good enough to post PT screenshots though :-P) I've been better than loosing money though, played maybe 200-300 hands, and at least wone moenies (got stacked, lost some more on another table, reloaded and stacked 1 person on both tables)

I hope to be moving up in NL fairly soon, but to do so, I should really put in more hands. I want at least 15k playing comfortably and running g00t at NL26 6max before I try NL50 6max.

Alright, off to class. Hopefully I can get all my work done so I can grind some hands out tonight/tomorrow.

Quick thoughts on equity

A recent thread in the 2p2 forums got me thinking about a subject of fold equity. As far as I knew, it was just... this thing. Let's dive into it a bit more.

(from the forums)
I always just thought pot equity:valuebetting, fold equity:bluffing

Wookies long, strung out definition, though may sound useless, it's not that different for value betting, where [b]practical[/b] pot equity for when determining a value bet would just be (an augmented line stolen from wookie)

practical PE = 1/N * (sum from i=1..N of (probability calls hand i) * (hot and cold equity of hand i) )

I say practical because if we know villian only folds hands that we beat, and calls with hands that beat us, the bet has no value. (as implied by the above definition)


Onto Fold equity:

[quote]you have AA and a player folds K5 on a 667 board.
[/quote]

so here, your FE against that range is most likely zero, as he folds it almost always, and he isn't giving up enough FE for a bet to be a profitable bluff(has to be more than 1/(current pot size in bets) %). That's all for a profitable bluff.

You might not have enough equity for a "valuebet" either, where there are some villians who fold K5o almost all of the time in this spot (valuebet in quotes because, though you may not have enough practical pot equity, we have to bet here for reasons of mainly not offering infinite odds, but also image/meta, etc.)

I like using these definitions for practical pot equity, and fold equity, as one can explain the two way bet (or "value-bluff"), such as found in Clarkmeister Theorem this way. (and to some extent the short snippit of the example on pg 159 of NLTAP, "bluffing with a fairly good hand", but the authors say at best, barely fails as a bluff and a valuebet, but is too tricky to analyze)

All in all, what does this theory rubbish boil down to? The only thing I know, and really care about at the tables is. In spots where I consider bluffing, I just hope he folds hands that are better than mine more than he should (how much he "should" dictated by pot size)

EDIT - HOLY CRAP that might have been the longest I spent on a single post, I'm hoping it made sense.

-----------------------

I think it's worth something, if anything, I got the 'DUH!' effect knocked into me when I remembered "It's only a good bluff when they fold a better hand" This has led me to bluff low bb trash (43, 52, etc) in unraised pots 3handed on flops that didn't hit most. Hey, even if they fold T hi in that spot, g000000t bluff, right? So far so good with that stratergy:-)

Turbo-Grind

Boy does the threat of not being able to play in a bit make me grind out a few hands.


Cleared the party bonus in 1 day, the saturday of my last post (which I did, might I add, before they announced they would no longer accept US player and got everyone into a panic). Last night, I also cleared the Stars bonus. Both of which I took advantage of my beautiful Samsung LCD by 4-tabling for the first time. I'm usually a quality over quanity guy when it comes to poker, and usually focus in on making notes and postflop reads (which are more valueable then any sort of statistics program IMO), but I gotta really get these hands in. I managed to fit a session or two of my usual 2 tabling of 6max LHE, which I usually do, and is my fulcrum for paying attention/not getting bored while playing.

When I 4 tabled, the other 2 tables I added were 2 Full Ring tables, which was a nice change in pace. The easy mistakes to exploit are obvious, just take a peek at VPIP's, and WTSD #'s in your HUD, and you can usually pick off where to sit. Not at FR. Most players fit the 17-22 VPIP, and have a relatively low PFR (maybe <8%). The "fish" you gotta sit to the left of and exploit are the ones who spew the most postflop. It's really helping me out on my note taking skills. You have a typical 18/4 guy? He might experiment with blind stealing, and open with J9s in the CO, so you have to adjust until he figures out what to do. Accidentally iso-raised that 15/6 who limped UTG with your KK? Bet you didn't expect him to 3 barrel you with 55 on a QT9 2 4 rainbow board. What about this ABC tight dude, who defeneded your CO steal in the BB? He'll always fire 1 barrel on a flop that likely missed you, but if you float, you will almost always take it down to a turn bet when he checks to you. Take notes of these things, Preflop mistakes are easy to identify, but these postflop spewings are worth MUCH more.

I also was able to get a nice sweat session of PLO8 with this man. I enjoyed it, just 2 tables, lots of commentary. He was overall impressed, and commented I had a very good grasp of the game for somebody who has logged <1k> "crap, I guess I shouldn't have done that." I can't wait to learn the game better, and to start playing a LAG style. I got to dip into it a bit, when I am seated with a nitty bunch, and gonna change tables, so I play out the blinds stealing anything that isn't bolted down.

I spent some time thinking about it, so when would I be in a favorable scoop/near scoop situation with Ah3hTd8d?

- 2 low cards with 2 hearts, or 2 diamonds
- 97+low
- J9x + 2 hearts/2 diamonds

What about with Kh5h2d3s (ignore the double suited, cause a 5 or 3 hi FD is useless in omaha)?

- A4x flop
- 2 low cards with 2 hearts (discounted due to 3rd nut lo)
- 46 (discounted due to it being 3rd nut low)

I made this post, and spent the next few days thinking about it, keeping it as a draft, and was about to PM bozlax, asking him to shed some light on the situation, but I think it boils down to slightly more nut hi situations, as well as a better situation when drawing to the low (A2 only fear for A38T, but A2/A3 both fears for 235K). I just sent him a PM asking him to look over 2 hands, with lotsa maths involved, will post the hands with my thoughts/analysis, then with his comments later.

RGW out

US Gov takes US players to POZtown

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=law&amp;Number=7482737&page=0&fpart=all

We lost the battle. Goodbye internet poker. I guess I started this blog a little too late.

The plan now? I have $1200 for a BR now, and have to turbo grind out an additional $220 in bonuii at party and stars, then I gotta move my money back to UB and finish grinding out that bonus there as mother effin quickly as possible. (+650). That leaves me at abit under $2k, but probably more if I factor in me playing g00t, and of course rakeback at UB.

So let's say for now leftover after all this is a bankroll of $2k. As far as Limit goes, the good rule of thumb is 300bb for playing at a limit. 2k/3 ~ 6, which is good, limit games have me at playing 3/6, which is usually the lowest limits spread at rooms. What about PL and NL? They say 20 buy ins per level, which leaves me at $100 buy ins. I always assume that the lowest BI live was $200... PLO, PLO8, and NLHE might have to wait a bit for me.

For now, I gotta make friends with the NY live players, though I don't know how that's gonna work out. I saw this site that was like a craigslist for home poker games. Looks like it's that as well as craigslist itself to find local games. I don't want to be stuck playing NLHE tournies and NLHE cash though (I suck at both, horribly). Well, whatever, if worse comes to worse, I got an extra $2k lying around.

But enough talking, I have bonuii to clear before I lose my $.

riding the HORSE

20% deposit bonus at stars means I take out half my roll at UB, and get free monies. I've been DYING to play at stars ever since they started to spread HORSE. HORSE is just a mixed game, that of Hold'em Omaha/Eight Razz Stud, and stud/Eight which rotates every 8 hands.

Hold'em I can play, as it's the first poker game I studied, O/8 is a teeny bit harder, but since I got a decent amount of PLO8 under my belt, I'm just making minor adjustments here and there, making a few looser calldowsn with the lock on 1 side of the pot if its a big pot. Stud is fairly intuitive to play for now, plus I have the 7cs section in Super System, which has been faring me well, as well as the stud/8 game seems to be coming to me as well (also in Super System, though it was written when there was no qualifier for low, so a few adjustments had to be made). Razz I thought would be easy, and for the most part it is, but aparently not as easy as I thought. I made the assumption of current best made hand in Razz is always the favorite... but I forget that equity is determined on what card could come, not just on what is the best now.

Live and learn I guess.

I gotta do the rest of that stars bonus later, maybe take a shot at 1/2 since I have a better feel for most of the games. For now though, I have a week to clear a $100 reload bonus at Party to clear (shouldn't take long at all). Thinking some PLO8, though maybe I should lay off that for now since I left myself 5 or so hands to review for that which I didn't look over. (yes, the same ones from my last post). Maybe I'll take a second stab at PLO, though I'm starting to think I should limit the amount of games I learn at one time.