Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Quick thoughts on equity

A recent thread in the 2p2 forums got me thinking about a subject of fold equity. As far as I knew, it was just... this thing. Let's dive into it a bit more.

(from the forums)
I always just thought pot equity:valuebetting, fold equity:bluffing

Wookies long, strung out definition, though may sound useless, it's not that different for value betting, where [b]practical[/b] pot equity for when determining a value bet would just be (an augmented line stolen from wookie)

practical PE = 1/N * (sum from i=1..N of (probability calls hand i) * (hot and cold equity of hand i) )

I say practical because if we know villian only folds hands that we beat, and calls with hands that beat us, the bet has no value. (as implied by the above definition)


Onto Fold equity:

[quote]you have AA and a player folds K5 on a 667 board.
[/quote]

so here, your FE against that range is most likely zero, as he folds it almost always, and he isn't giving up enough FE for a bet to be a profitable bluff(has to be more than 1/(current pot size in bets) %). That's all for a profitable bluff.

You might not have enough equity for a "valuebet" either, where there are some villians who fold K5o almost all of the time in this spot (valuebet in quotes because, though you may not have enough practical pot equity, we have to bet here for reasons of mainly not offering infinite odds, but also image/meta, etc.)

I like using these definitions for practical pot equity, and fold equity, as one can explain the two way bet (or "value-bluff"), such as found in Clarkmeister Theorem this way. (and to some extent the short snippit of the example on pg 159 of NLTAP, "bluffing with a fairly good hand", but the authors say at best, barely fails as a bluff and a valuebet, but is too tricky to analyze)

All in all, what does this theory rubbish boil down to? The only thing I know, and really care about at the tables is. In spots where I consider bluffing, I just hope he folds hands that are better than mine more than he should (how much he "should" dictated by pot size)

EDIT - HOLY CRAP that might have been the longest I spent on a single post, I'm hoping it made sense.

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I think it's worth something, if anything, I got the 'DUH!' effect knocked into me when I remembered "It's only a good bluff when they fold a better hand" This has led me to bluff low bb trash (43, 52, etc) in unraised pots 3handed on flops that didn't hit most. Hey, even if they fold T hi in that spot, g000000t bluff, right? So far so good with that stratergy:-)


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